GBP/ILS Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is currently holding interest rates, while the Bank of Israel recently cut theirs, favoring a stronger shekel.
• Risk/commodities: The Israeli shekel has been buoyed by geopolitical stability and strong economic fundamentals, while the pound struggles with political uncertainty in the UK.
• One macro factor: The recent Bank of England policy decision indicated a dovish outlook, with markets expecting potential rate cuts in the coming months.
Range:
The rate is likely to drift within its recent range, as it is currently experiencing low volatility.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive shift in UK political conditions could bolster the pound.
• Downside risk: Further cuts to the Bank of Israel's rate may strengthen the shekel even more, putting additional pressure on the GBP.