The exchange rate forecast for the GBP to NGN indicates a complex interplay of monetary policy changes in the UK and ongoing reforms in Nigeria that may affect currency valuations.
Recent signals from the Bank of England suggest a cautious approach to interest rate policy. Following a rate cut in November 2025, the bank’s latest policy statement indicated that future cuts may be slower than previously anticipated. Analysts believe this cautious stance, combined with revised GDP growth forecasts for the UK—down to 0.75%—could weigh on the pound's potential for significant upward momentum. The current GBP to NGN rate of 1959 is 1.2% above its three-month average of 1936, highlighting some resilience in the face of economic headwinds.
In Nigeria, the central bank’s tight monetary policies have led to a decline in inflation, reaching 18.02% in September 2025, which may support a stronger naira. Furthermore, recent developments, such as the IMF’s positive assessment of Nigeria’s economic reforms, have bolstered investor confidence, contributing to relative stability in the naira, which has not depreciated as typically expected. This stability comes alongside projections of a potential 6% depreciation of the naira, indicating that while short-term stability is observed, longer-term vulnerabilities remain due to global market uncertainties.
The oil market, a crucial factor for the Nigerian economy, is also essential to consider. Current oil prices at $60.89 per barrel are 3.9% below the three-month average, having shown volatility. Falling oil prices could impact Nigeria's export revenues and, by extension, the naira's stability, as oil remains a significant economic driver for the country.
As analysts review these factors, the GBP/NGN exchange rate may experience fluctuations based on ongoing developments in both the UK and Nigeria. Observers should closely monitor economic indicators and policy announcements that could influence these currencies in the near term.
