GBP/NGN Outlook:
The GBP/NGN rate is currently slightly weaker and likely to move sideways, trading considerably below its 90-day average. The recent political uncertainties in the UK and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England are weighing on the pound.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is expected to cut rates, contrasting with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s focus on stabilizing the naira.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their recent average, which typically supports the naira due to Nigeria's dependence on oil exports.
• One macro factor: Rising inflation forecasts in Nigeria may pose future risks to the naira's stability.
Range:
The GBP/NGN is likely to drift within its recent trading range, reflecting current uncertainties in both economies.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising strong performance in UK retail sales could boost the pound.
• Downside risk: Further deterioration in UK political stability may increase pressure on the GBP.