GBP to TRY Forecast & Outlook
09 May 2026 • 00:56 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🟢 Mild upside
- Expected range: 61.8400 – 62.9220
- Dominant driver: ⚖️ Interest-rate differentials
- 3-month trend: 🟢 Uptrend
Currently, GBP/TRY is trading close to 90-day highs at 61.84, supported by the rate differential with Turkish rates persisting at high levels. Over the next few sessions, the pair may remain supported as the rate gap remains elevated and risk sentiment favors defensive currencies and safe-haven flows.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Turkey using GBP might find rates somewhat more favourable than recent levels.
- Travellers: buying Turkish Lira abroad could see relatively stable or slightly improved exchange conditions.
- Businesses: paying Turkish Lira invoices in GBP may experience better conversion rates if the pair continues to hold near recent highs.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The UK could face elevated rates or policy signals that keep the GBP/TRY rate above its 90-day average, influenced by UK rate hike expectations.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment supports the Turkish Lira’s hawkish stance, underpinning the pair.
- Global factors: External risks and geopolitical factors support safe-haven currencies and risk-sensitive FX, pressuring or supporting the pair depending on the direction of risk.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A slowdown or pause in Turkish rate hikes could reduce the rate gap and weaken the pair.
- Downside risk: Deterioration in risk sentiment or global risk aversion could push the pair lower, despite current technical strength.
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