Recent forecasts and developments suggest a positive outlook for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) against the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD). Analysts highlight several key factors underpinning this trend. The U.S. Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle in September 2025 has led to a weaker U.S. dollar, which supports the MYR. Combined with Malaysia's resilient economic fundamentals, including steady GDP growth and significant foreign direct investment inflows, the MYR has gained investor confidence.
Furthermore, Malaysia's recent trade surplus, amounting to MYR 16.1 billion in August 2025, bolstered by increased exports and diversification efforts, is also a positive sign for the MYR. Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 3.00% indicates a cautious yet stable monetary policy. Collectively, these aspects have contributed to the MYR reaching 60-day highs near 1.8627 against the HKD, which is 0.8% higher than its three-month average of 1.8483, maintaining a stable range from 1.8372 to 1.8657.
On the other hand, the HKD has seen pressure from recent developments. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) cut its base interest rate by 25 basis points in September, the first reduction since December 2024, in alignment with the Fed's policies. Additionally, the HKMA's interventions in the foreign exchange market, including the sale of HK$60.543 billion to defend its currency peg, illustrate ongoing efforts to maintain HKD stability amid external market pressures.
Oil prices, which significantly influence the MYR, are currently trading at 63.63 USD, approximately 3.4% below their three-month average of 65.86. This fluctuation indicates a volatile range from 60.96 to 70.13, which may impact future MYR performance.
Overall, the interplay of these factors suggests the MYR may continue to strengthen against the HKD, presenting opportunities for those engaged in international transactions.
