The exchange rate forecast for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) against the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) reflects a complex interplay of recent economic developments and market dynamics. As of early September 2025, the MYR is trading at 7-day lows near 1.8480, which is close to its 3-month average and has demonstrated stability within a range of 1.8277 to 1.8701.
Analysts predict that the MYR may appreciate against the USD, with forecasts suggesting a range of RM4.10 to RM4.15 by December 2025. This anticipated strength is partly driven by recent fiscal reforms and the Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) decision to maintain the overnight policy rate at 2.75%. The central bank's cautious stance follows a 25 basis point cut in July 2025, designed to mitigate risks from global trade tensions and weak economic growth. However, the imposition of a 19% tariff by the U.S. on Malaysian exports could pressure the MYR, potentially offsetting some of the expected gains.
In contrast, Hong Kong's monetary environment has been defined by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) commitment to maintaining the currency peg to the U.S. dollar. With intervention in late June by purchasing HK$9.4 billion to defend the HKD, the local interbank rates have risen. Despite geopolitical tensions causing volatility, HKMA officials continue to affirm the currency's stability. Analysts have noted the influence of significant capital inflows on the strength of the HKD, coupled with challenges posed by erratic U.S. policies.
Furthermore, oil price fluctuations are relevant for both currencies, especially given Malaysia’s status as a major oil exporter. The recent drop in oil prices to around $66.66, 2.5% below its 3-month average, reflects this volatility, as the crude has traded within an 18.0% range over the past months. This decline could further impact the MYR, given its vulnerability to oil market trends.
Overall, currency forecasters acknowledge that while the MYR may find support from domestic measures, external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and oil prices will be critical in determining the MYR to HKD exchange rate trajectory in the near term. Businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should remain vigilant of these evolving dynamics to optimize their currency exposures.
