The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has faced notable pressure recently, attributed to disappointing GDP data which has increased expectations for further interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). With the RBNZ already lowering its interest rate to a three-year low of 3.00% on August 20, analysts anticipate that ongoing economic challenges may lead to additional reductions. Increased tariffs from the U.S. on New Zealand exports have compounded these concerns, threatening the country’s export-driven economy and putting further strain on the NZD.
As of September 2025, the NZD to Swiss franc (CHF) exchange rate was hovering near 0.4659, marking a 90-day low and down 2.3% from its three-month average of 0.4769. This situation reflects a stable trading range of 4.9%, between 0.4659 and 0.4886. Expectations around trade figures suggest that negative trends could persist if trade deficits continue to grow.
In contrast, the Swiss franc faces its own challenges. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported substantial losses due to the strengthening of the franc and a significant decline in exports resulting from newly imposed U.S. tariffs of 39% on Swiss goods. These tariffs have raised concerns among exporters, leading to speculations that some firms might relocate operations to the U.S. to manage their costs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also downgraded Switzerland's growth forecast to 1.3%, highlighting the adverse implications of trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the SNB has maintained a zero interest rate policy to combat low inflation, which may affect the future attractiveness of the franc.
Overall, the outlook for both the NZD and CHF appears cautious, with economic factors adversely impacting both currencies. Analysts predict that the weakness in the NZD could continue in the near term, while the CHF faces headwinds due to export challenges, potentially creating a volatile environment for the NZD/CHF exchange rate in the coming months.
