NZD/PHP Outlook:
The NZD/PHP remains slightly positive, trading just above its recent average and within its mid-range. A strong dairy auction result is lending some support to the New Zealand dollar.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains a hawkish stance, holding interest rates at a high level compared to the Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas, which is managing political and fiscal risks.
• Risk/commodities: The recent uptick in global dairy prices is boosting the New Zealand dollar, which benefits significantly from dairy exports.
• One macro factor: New Zealand’s trade deficit may weigh on the NZD as fresh trade figures are expected shortly.
Range:
Expect the NZD/PHP to continue drifting within its recent range, influenced by ongoing volatility.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strong rebound in overall trade figures could enhance NZD demand.
• Downside risk: Heightened political uncertainty in the Philippines may create further downward pressure on the PHP.