Recently, the EUR to PHP exchange rate has reached a 30-day high near 64.77, reflecting a gain of 2.4% above its three-month average of 63.23. This move has occurred within a relatively stable range of 5.5%, oscillating between 61.80 and 65.18. Analysts attribute this upward trend in the euro primarily to its negative correlation with a weakening US dollar and the supportive comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, which have bolstered market sentiment regarding the European economy.
The euro's performance is affected significantly by the geopolitical climate, particularly due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Experts note that the repercussions of this conflict have led to fluctuations in the euro's value, chiefly due to economic disruptions stemming from energy crises and sanctions on Russia. As the war continues, it is believed that both financial and military support for Ukraine will be crucial in influencing investor confidence and, consequently, the euro's trajectory moving forward.
On the other hand, the Philippine peso faces challenges, as indicated by forecasts suggesting its potential depreciation against the US dollar in 2025, largely due to weaker external balances and an overvalued currency. Political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming mid-term elections adds another layer of complexity, particularly following the recent arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte. These factors could exert downward pressure on the peso, further impacting the EUR to PHP exchange rate.
Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices play an important role in shaping the euro's value. Recent data show that oil prices are at 90-day highs near 75.62, which is significantly higher than the three-month average of 67.03. The volatility in the oil market, trading within a 25.7% range, could lead to additional price pressures in the Eurozone, potentially affecting the ECB's monetary policy decisions. As energy costs remain a critical factor in economic performance, the outlook for the euro will likely be influenced by global oil market trends.
Overall, market analysts emphasize that the euro's value against the peso will hinge on a combination of ECB monetary policies, geopolitical developments, the economic health of the Eurozone, and the evolving political landscape in the Philippines.