The recent exchange rate forecasts for the Singapore Dollar (SGD) to Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) highlight a range of factors intrinsic to both economies, creating a complex landscape for currency traders and businesses engaged in international transactions.
Analysts observe that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has enacted two monetary policy easings this year in response to global trade uncertainties and a revised GDP growth outlook of 0%-2% for 2025. The MAS kept the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band's rate of appreciation modest to boost economic resilience, especially following a significant setback stemming from tariffs imposed by the United States on Singaporean imports. Despite a slight improvement in Q2 2025 growth figures at 1.4%, the agency anticipates broader economic moderation, which could lead to continued pressure on the SGD.
Conversely, the Indonesian Rupiah faces mounting challenges amid notable economic volatility. Bank Indonesia's recent 25 basis point cut to its benchmark rate, now at 5.25%, signals efforts to stimulate growth amid a deteriorating current account deficit. The deficit, which expanded to $8.9 billion in 2024, raises concerns over Indonesia's economic sustainability, especially given the anticipated slowdown due to ongoing anti-government protests and a bearish investor sentiment towards the rupiah. Furthermore, the potential impact of a 32% U.S. tariff on Indonesian imports creates uncertainty, despite a temporary pause in its implementation.
Considering recent market data, the SGD to IDR exchange rate at 12,630 remains only marginally below its three-month average of 12,694, with fluctuations contained within a narrow band of 1.7% from 12,591 to 12,808. This stability reflects market sentiment amid the ongoing economic challenges on both sides. Forecasters suggest that as long as Singapore navigates its monetary policy effectively while Indonesia addresses its domestic pressures and external risks, the SGD may maintain an edge over the IDR in the near term.
