The recent performance of the USD to PLN exchange rate has been influenced significantly by both U.S. monetary policy considerations and political developments in Poland. As of September 2025, the USD is trading at 90-day lows near 3.5798, which is 1.8% below its three-month average of 3.6468, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. Analysts note that this depreciation is largely driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, particularly with the Senate's recent confirmation of a board member aligned with President Trump, raising fears of aggressive rate cuts.
In the U.S., markets are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, as expectations of a 0.3% rise could influence the Fed's decisions. Amid these uncertainties, trade tensions with China loom large, potentially impacting sectors critical to the dollar's strength. Additionally, ongoing global dedollarization efforts and the implications of the Mar-a-Lago Accord may further complicate the USD's trajectory.
Meanwhile, the Polish zloty (PLN) is confronting its challenges. Recent actions by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut interest rates in response to declining inflation have negatively affected the zloty. Analysts from UBS have adjusted their EUR/PLN forecasts, now projecting a rate of 4.25 through Q2 2026 due to both global trade tensions and domestic political uncertainties. These dynamics have fostered speculation of further NBP rate cuts, subsequently influencing the PLN's stability against the USD.
Recent economic data from Poland, including underwhelming retail sales and industrial production figures, has contributed to a general dovish sentiment towards the PLN. This political and economic backdrop suggests continued volatility for the zloty, leaving opportunities for potential currency pair adjustments ahead.
Overall, the interplay of U.S. monetary policy shifts and Poland's internal challenges is expected to guide the USD to PLN exchange rate in the near term, with volatility likely persisting as market participants respond to incoming economic data and political developments in both regions.
