The USD to PLN exchange rate has recently shown upward movement, currently resting at 60-day highs near 3.6883, which is approximately 1.1% higher than its three-month average of 3.6459. This rate has remained relatively stable, fluctuating within a tight range of 3.5813 to 3.7002.
Analysts attribute the strength of the US dollar to a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Although the Fed has cut rates, Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further cuts may not be inevitable, suggesting that future monetary policy could support the dollar. The anticipation of upcoming inflation data and ongoing US-China trade tensions may also play a role in shaping investor sentiment and currency valuations.
In contrast, the Polish zloty faces headwinds from several factors. Following a period of tightening, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) implemented a 50 basis point rate cut in May 2025, largely due to declining inflation. Continued reductions in inflation are leading market experts to speculate further rate cuts, which could exert downward pressure on the zloty. Recent political developments following President Karol Nawrocki's election have also injected uncertainty into Poland's fiscal landscape, impacting investor confidence in the PLN.
Furthermore, ongoing trade tensions with the United States, particularly concerning tariffs on Polish goods, could hinder economic growth. This situation, combined with the NBP's accommodative stance, may further weaken the zloty against the dollar.
As the USD to PLN exchange rate remains near recent highs, businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should closely monitor these developments. Market fluctuations can significantly impact costs, making awareness of economic indicators and policy shifts essential for cost-effective currency exchanges.
