The recent exchange rate forecasts for USD to PLN indicate a softening of the US dollar, primarily driven by expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve anticipated in 2026. The US dollar (USD) has retreated following a notable decrease in inflation, as reported in the latest consumer price index, which dropped from 3% to 2.7% in November. This shift has led to declining USD forecasts, as traders now expect the Federal Reserve to implement multiple rate cuts beginning as early as mid-2026, contributing to a narrowing yield differential that puts downward pressure on the dollar.
Mixed economic data from the US complicates the outlook. While there are signs of slowing growth, particularly in manufacturing and consumer spending, the labor market remains resilient. Analysts suggest this contradiction limits the dollar's downside potential. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recently shown signs of retreat from 2024–2025 peaks, influenced by a stabilizing equity market and a shift in focus away from inflation concerns.
In Poland, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is initiating a cautious easing cycle, having reduced the benchmark interest rate in May 2025. Current inflation rates have also shown a downward trend, with an annual rate falling to 2.4% in November, closely aligned with the bank's target. This environment has led forecasters to predict the Polish zloty (PLN) will stabilize against the Euro, reflecting a more optimistic outlook. However, the zloty's recent strength may come at a cost to the NBP, projected to face significant losses due to the revaluation of foreign reserves amid the zloty's appreciation.
At present, the USD to PLN exchange rate is hovering near 90-day lows at approximately 3.5794, which is 1.7% below the three-month average of 3.6408. Over recent weeks, the pair has traded in a stable range from 3.5794 to 3.7114. Given these combined factors, market participants are advised to prepare for potential volatility influenced by forthcoming US economic indicators and continued monitoring of Poland's monetary policies. Overall, the prevailing sentiment points to an ongoing weakening of the US dollar against the Polish zloty in the near term.
