Biggest Currency Movers – October 2025: Dollar Resilience, Yen Weakness, and Commodity Crosses
October saw the U.S. dollar reassert itself amid sticky inflation and solid data. The yen hit new lows, the kiwi slid, and commodity FX held steady. Here’s what moved the market and what it means for travellers and businesses.
Overview
October brought back a dose of dollar dominance as U.S. yields stayed firm and global risk appetite softened. Most G10 currencies slipped against the greenback, led by the yen and kiwi, while Aussie and Canadian dollars proved more resilient thanks to commodities. A softer euro and pound rounded out a month where “higher-for-longer” once again shaped FX moves.
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Key Storylines
• U.S. data stays hot: Sticky core inflation and robust retail sales kept the Fed cautious—markets now see the first cut pushed toward mid-2026.
• BoJ intervention risk rises: With USD/JPY near 163, verbal warnings escalated, but actual yen support was limited.
• ECB and BoE on pause: Inflation cooled but growth worries deepened, leaving EUR and GBP range-bound to weaker.
• Commodities cushion AUD/CAD: Oil prices rebounded early month, while China’s stimulus hints helped steady AUD sentiment.
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G10 Winners & Losers vs USD (October)
| Currency | Pair proxy | Oct change vs USD | Take |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | US Dollar Index | +0.8% | Higher yields and firm data kept dollar bid. |
| CAD | USD/CAD | −0.2% | Supported by oil; Bank of Canada in data-dependent mode. |
| AUD | AUD/USD | −0.4% | Resilient amid China support and solid commodities. |
| CHF | USD/CHF | +0.6% | SNB steady; safe-haven demand faded slightly. |
| EUR | EUR/USD | −0.7% | Growth slump offsets cooling inflation story. |
| GBP | GBP/USD | −0.9% | UK fiscal caution and soft retail data weighed. |
| NZD | NZD/USD | −1.3% | RBNZ still hawkish but growth slowdown hits kiwi. |
| JPY | USD/JPY | −1.9% | Yield gap and inaction drove fresh yen lows. |
Positive figures indicate the non-USD currency strengthened vs USD. Data near Oct 28 AEST, sourced from Finviz FX performance snapshots. Indicative only — compare live rates on BER.
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Emerging-Market Highlights
• INR (Indian rupee): Flat near ₹89.5 amid oil volatility; RBI intervention smoothed spikes.
• MXN (Mexican peso): Slightly softer (−0.8%) after Banxico’s cautious tone and weaker U.S. demand data.
• BRL (Brazilian real): Gained +0.6% as rate cuts paused and commodities rallied.
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What Moved the Market
• U.S. yields anchored: 10-year Treasury hovered near 4.7%, underpinning dollar strength.
• BoJ hesitation: Verbal intervention failed to halt yen’s slide—market watching for concrete action.
• Europe slows: Weak PMI readings deepened growth fears, capping euro recovery attempts.
• Commodity lifeline: Oil and copper gains offered short-term relief to AUD and CAD.
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Quick Take for BER Users
• Large transfers: The USD rebound means better buying power for U.S. payees—consider locking early or using split deals to smooth timing.
• Exporters/Importers: AUD and CAD stability helpful for Asia-Pacific flows; GBP and JPY sellers may want to hedge forward.
• Travellers: EUR, GBP, and JPY remain soft—favorable time to book European or Japan trips before year-end.
💡 Tip: Late-year volatility can spike with thin liquidity—set BER rate alerts to catch quick reversals.
Disclaimer: Please note any provider recommendations, currency forecasts or any opinions of our authors should not be taken as a reference to buy or sell any financial product.
