USD/XPF Outlook:
Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average, lacking a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts has kept the USD from gaining traction against the XPF.
• Risk/commodities: Recent stability in oil prices is not significantly impacting the XPF, which has maintained a stable exchange rate despite fluctuations.
• One macro factor: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the "Sell America" trend are leading investors to reduce their exposure to the USD, impacting its strength.
Range:
Expect the USD/XPF to hold within its recent trading range, resisting drastic movements despite external pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising increase in U.S. employment data or better-than-expected economic indicators could strengthen the USD's position.
• Downside risk: Further geopolitical tensions or negative economic news may increase pressure on the USD, pushing the rate lower against the XPF.
