The recent exchange rate forecasts for the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) to Indian Rupee (INR) have been shaped significantly by developments within both economies. As of October 19, 2025, the HKD is trading at 90-day highs around 11.43 INR, approximately 1.2% above its three-month average of 11.3 INR. This stability reflects a trading range that has remained consistent at 3.0%, fluctuating between 11.10 and 11.43 INR.
Recent actions by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), including a rate cut by 25 basis points to 4.50% in September 2025, suggest a prevailing strategy to mitigate pressures on the HKD. The move aligns HKMA's policy with the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decisions, signaling a concerted effort to maintain currency stability amid fluctuating economic conditions. Furthermore, the HKMA's market interventions, particularly the acquisition of nearly HK$4 billion in July and HK$60.543 billion in May, underline the authority's commitment to supporting the HKD against declining pressures.
On the Indian side, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) intervention on October 15, 2025, wherein it sold $3 billion to $5 billion to stabilize the INR, marked a significant response to external pressures, such as rising tariffs and intensified trade tensions with the U.S. This intervention was met with positive market sentiment as it led to the rupee's largest single-day gain in four months. Furthermore, a favorable shift in options market sentiment for the INR indicates a strengthening demand for rupee call options, highlighting a growing confidence in the currency.
Analysts suggest that the interplay between these interventions and the broader economic implications will continue to drive the HKD to INR exchange rate. The ongoing global economic factors, particularly U.S. monetary policy, will play a crucial role in this dynamic. As forecasters closely watch these developments, the consensus is that the currency pair may remain stable in the near term, subject to continued regulatory actions from the HKMA and RBI, as well as evolving trade relationships.
